NASCAR Projections

[sg207]

Projecting the top 10
By Marty Smith, NASCAR.COM
January 13, 2005
09:59 AM EST (14:59 GMT)

I don't have much in common with Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck: He's rich. I'm not. He's bald. I need a haircut every eight days...You get the idea.

But, man, as soon as either of us makes a prediction, you can bet it'll go straight to hell in a handbasket.

Hasselbeck, as many of you may recall, was the Seahawks captain who correctly called the overtime coin flip in last year's NFL playoff game versus the Green Bay Packers. When his call proved correct, he blurted, "We want the ball and we're going to score!"

He promptly threw an interception to Green Bay's Al Harris, which Harris returned 52 yards for the winning touchdown. Perfect.

Not that I'm one to talk. I'm no Miss Cleo, either. When I predict race winners, they puke a motor on the pace lap. Hence, it would be prudent for me to refrain from expressing my thoughts on who will finish where in the 2005 Nextel Cup Series season.

But inquiring minds are yearning for something to cuss at, and I can certainly oblige them there. So without further adieu, here's my projected lineup for the 2005 Chase for the Nextel Cup.

10. Jeff Burton: Like Kid Rock in "Only God Knows Why", Burton's been gone, been gone for way too long. He hasn't graced the Waldorf stage since 2001, and last year posted his worst season in a decade. But 2005 marks a new beginning that will result in a once-familiar ending.

9. Elliott Sadler: Candyman enjoyed his sweetest season to date in 2004, and more than one elite Cup Series crewmember has migrated to Parrott Bay during the off-season.

8. Tony Stewart: Smoke tends to get stronger as the season progresses, so The Chase format is tailored for him. If he gets hot in October, he could easily win it all.

7. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: For the first time in his career, Junior was a consistent threat to win every week. (Well, aside from the Vegas debacle and the races following his accident at Sonoma). So what'd he do? He went and changed his pit crew, said he was tired of bickering with Tony Eury Jr. and traded cuz for Pete Rondeau. Junior and Rondeau have enjoyed success before -- Rondeau crew chiefed Junior's victorious Busch ride at Bristol last August -- but this will be a transition year for the No. 8 bunch.


Kasey Kahne and Jamie McMurray, 13th and 11th in 2004. Credit: Autostock

6. Kurt Busch: In the six seasons since 1998, when Jeff Gordon repeated as champion, the average championship finish among defending champs is 5.8. Busch will continue that trend.

5. Jamie McMurray: Had he made The Chase last year he'd have finished fifth. This year he'll make the Chase. You know the rest. A vastly upgraded pit crew won't hurt anything, either.

4. Kasey Kahne: Once he wins one, look out. He'll win four, maybe five. This kid's a year or two away from winning it all.

3. Mark Martin: No one would complain if Martin rode off into retirement with that elusive championship, but he'll come up short once again. But take that for what it's worth. Last year Martin wasn't even in my top 10. He finished fourth.

2. Jeff Gordon: Sports Illustrated picked Super G, and it's hard to argue. He's hungry. He's in the midst of a three-year drought. How funny is that stat -- that three years without a championship is a "drought"? Gordon won his first title in his third season, 1995, then went back-to-back in '97 and '98. In 2001 he was back at the head table, but hasn't won it again since.


Jeff Gordon, finished third in 2004. Credit: Autostock

1. Jimmie Johnson: Despite the loss of at least two crucial crewmembers during the off-season, the 48 bunch is Nextel Cup's finest. All teams enter 2005 with some unknowns. NASCAR's new aerodynamic, tire and gearing changes to Nextel Cup cars have produced loose handling conditions for drivers, and Johnson's the best alive at slingin' one sideways. Then there's the unfinished business factor: Johnson fell eight points short of Busch last year. This won't sit well. This year he'll bring home the hardware, an appropriate ornament for the mantelpiece in his new home.

So there you have it. Johnson's my choice. I'll likely regret leaving Kenseth off this list. Then again, his absence means he's got the inside track on winning the whole dadgum thing.

[Homercleas1]

Nice list.

I thought Martin wasn't racing full time this year or is he just retiring at the end of the year?

[sg207]

Originally Posted by Homercleas1

Nice list.

I thought Martin wasn't racing full time this year or is he just retiring at the end of the year?

I think he's going full time this year, and part time next year.

[Homercleas1]

Originally Posted by sg207

I think he's going full time this year, and part time next year.

Good to know come pool time!

[MountainMan]

I like the list, but I believe Jr. is a little too low.

Here's why. The writer says this will be a "transition" year for the 8 team. Don't hold you breath. This new crew chief led Jr. to points Championships in the Busch ranks. Don't think for one minute the two don't know each other very well.

The rest of the crew worked on the #15 crew. I can tell you this from watching over the last few years, that #8 crew wasn't very good. They cost him several great finishes in the Pits. The #15 crew was much better.

I guess we'll all see starting February 20th.

[sg207]

Originally Posted by MountainMan

I like the list, but I believe Jr. is a little too low.

Here's why. The writer says this will be a "transition" year for the 8 team. Don't hold you breath. This new crew chief led Jr. to points Championships in the Busch ranks. Don't think for one minute the two don't know each other very well.

The rest of the crew worked on the #15 crew. I can tell you this from watching over the last few years, that #8 crew wasn't very good. They cost him several great finishes in the Pits. The #15 crew was much better.

I guess we'll all see starting February 20th.

I didn't know he was Jr's Busch crew cheif, but that is interesting. Hopefully it works out.

[MountainMan]

I am a little mistaken. He didn't crew the Busch ride Jr was in full-time in the late 1990's. However, he was the chief for the Bush ride at Bristol last season when Jr. won.

Nevertheless, we'll see how it shakes out.