Pats / Colts

[gribbzz]

Originally Posted by ACC Rulez

One question...if this play was so great on 4th and 2...why not run it on third down?

That is the only problem I have with this decision. It was something that was an after thought, he fully expected to get the 3rd down conversion and when they didn't he panicked which is completely uncharacteristic of him. He shouldn't have called that timeout and then went for it. If he wanted to go for it the decision should have been made earlier in the series.

Quote:

I don't like the call. you can call it arrogance. you can call it taking risks. The fact is, you do not have the confidence in your defense to stop Peyton from going 70 yeards, so you would rather risk it on 4th and 2. that is a statement about what he feels about his defense.

I don't think anyone is denying that. I am sure Peyton would have driven the field and scored. That is the reason I liked the call.

Quote:

When you go for "risky" calls, you have to live with the results. If this was any coach beside Bellichick (let's say Zorn, Mangini or whoever), that fan base would be calling for his head. When you go for it...and go for a pass that close to the line....you put the game on the line. What if the official gives you a bad spot? You lost. I am all for going for it on 4th down in the situations....but being up 6, 2 mins to go and on your own 28 yard line is not the ticket.

Well Duh, Belichick has won 3 superbowls here...he gets a pass on a lot of calls and player moves. He isn't just living with it, he is defending his decision like he would do it again.

ESPN just said that the chance of winning going for it was above 80% and punting it away based on the average punt from Hansen was in the 70's%. If you are playing the odds going for it was a better choice.

Ultimately I have no problem with the decision because it was to win the game at that moment and not to "not lose"...you play. to win. the game.

[Lawdog]

Originally Posted by gribbzz

That is the only problem I have with this decision. It was something that was an after thought, he fully expected to get the 3rd down conversion and when they didn't he panicked which is completely uncharacteristic of him. He shouldn't have called that timeout and then went for it. If he wanted to go for it the decision should have been made earlier in the series. I don't think anyone is denying that. I am sure Peyton would have driven the field and scored. That is the reason I liked the call. Well Duh, Belichick has won 3 superbowls here...he gets a pass on a lot of calls and player moves. He isn't just living with it, he is defending his decision like he would do it again. ESPN just said that the chance of winning going for it was above 80% and punting it away based on the average punt from Hansen was in the 70's%. If you are playing the odds going for it was a better choice. Ultimately I have no problem with the decision because it was to win the game at that moment and not to "not lose"...you play. to win. the game.

The chorus of people who hated the call include, but are not limited to: Holmgren, Dungy, Shannahan, or to make the point clearer, Teddy Bruschi. He hated the call and says it will unravel the defensive confidence of the team for games to come. The Sports Guy is also one of the biggest Pat fans in the world and thinks it is one of the worst 4 Pat losses of all time. If your own base is saying this, that is not a good thing.

How can anyone be sure Peyton would have scored, given his dropsie and banged up WRs not named Wayne and the fact the Pats had been fairly successful isolating Wayne and Clark. Check out Peter King's MMQ on the subject. Pretty compelling evidence this was a bad call IMO, and that of the majority of others.

It is a bad call if it worked. It is not just a bad call because it failed, it is a bad call because it is pattently unwise based on the total circumstances.

[Venomlace]

Originally Posted by Lawdog

The chorus of people who hated the call include, but are not limited to: Holmgren, Dungy, Shannahan, or to make the point clearer, Teddy Bruschi. He hated the call and says it will unravel the defensive confidence of the team for games to come. The Sports Guy is also one of the biggest Pat fans in the world and thinks it is one of the worst 4 Pat losses of all time. If your own base is saying this, that is not a good thing. How can anyone be sure Peyton would have scored, given his dropsie and banged up WRs not named Wayne and the fact the Pats had been fairly successful isolating Wayne and Clark. Check out Peter King's MMQ on the subject. Pretty compelling evidence this was a bad call IMO, and that of the majority of others. It is a bad call if it worked. It is not just a bad call because it failed, it is a bad call because it is pattently unwise based on the total circumstances.

Agreed 100%. Hoodie just killed the confidence of his defense for the second half of the season. There is NO excuse to go for that based off where they were on the field and with the lead. Don't go giving this coach a pass, if Childress or someone of his ilk did this....my god, he'd be blasted from here to the moon and back over it.

Also of note was the body language of hoodie as we walked off the field. I felt like a went to the future and saw Jay Cutler as head coach of the Patriots - it was that bad. Perhaps he's bored? One thing's for sure, the real NFL game is not Madden on the Xbox 360, you can't go for it on 4th whenever you want.

[gribbzz]

Advanced NFL Stats: Belichick's 4th Down Decision vs the Colts

case and point...

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Belichick's 4th Down Decision vs the Colts .fullpost{display:inline;} New England coach Bill Belichick is taking a lot of heat for his decision to attempt a 4th down conversion late in the game against the Colts. Indianapolis came back to win in dramatic fashion. Was the decision a good one? With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be: (0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP. Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

So statistically better to go for it, thats what they did...didn't work. Sure its one of the worst losses in the BB era but thats because it was another 17 point comeback by the colts not because of this decision. Had the score been 20-14 a lot of the game and this happened it wouldn't have been as worse of a loss.

[gribbzz]

Originally Posted by Venomlace

Agreed 100%. Hoodie just killed the confidence of his defense for the second half of the season. There is NO excuse to go for that based off where they were on the field and with the lead. Don't go giving this coach a pass, if Childress or someone of his ilk did this....my god, he'd be blasted from here to the moon and back over it. Also of note was the body language of hoodie as we walked off the field. I felt like a went to the future and saw Jay Cutler as head coach of the Patriots - it was that bad. Perhaps he's bored? One thing's for sure, the real NFL game is not Madden on the Xbox 360, you can't go for it on 4th whenever you want.

Underlined: I really doubt that. You really think a BB coached team is going to fold because he didn't trust them, for good reason no less? They are a young group that is banged up and looked gassed. I hardly think they will play worse because of this, I actually think they will take this and work harder much like the healthy scratch of Adalius Thomas. It didn't make him give up...

Bold: Not sure you see the patriots too often , they go for it on 4th pretty frequently. They have gone for it in positions you would think they are crazy for, before last night. So for him it is like Madden...and in franchise mode he has 3 trophys and a lot of achievements

[Lawdog]

Originally Posted by gribbzz

Underlined: I really doubt that. You really think a BB coached team is going to fold because he didn't trust them, for good reason no less? They are a young group that is banged up and looked gassed. I hardly think they will play worse because of this, I actually think they will take this and work harder much like the healthy scratch of Adalius Thomas. It didn't make him give up... Bold: Not sure you see the patriots too often , they go for it on 4th pretty frequently. They have gone for it in positions you would think they are crazy for, before last night. So for him it is like Madden...and in franchise mode he has 3 trophys and a lot of achievements

I think Bruschi knows the Pats D about as well as Belly and if he thinks this is a debacle with implications, then this issue transforms beyond playing percentages IMO. Just listen to the Page 2 audio from the Sports Guy today and you will get a Pats fan view that this was not a good scenario for the team to go through.

[gribbzz]

Originally Posted by Lawdog

I think Bruschi knows the Pats D about as well as Belly and if he thinks this is a debacle with implications, then this issue transforms beyond playing percentages IMO. Just listen to the Page 2 audio from the Sports Guy today and you will get a Pats fan view that this was not a good scenario for the team to go through.

As much as I respect Bruschi he is not a player on the team right now, a lot of these players are new and he doesn't know them as much as you would think. On top of that he has to say something, it couldn't be "Well things are great on the defensive side of the ball and they will step up because of it".

I have listened to it and I have listened to other fans and non fans talk about this on the radio. I guess those that don't share the same point of view I do will just have to wait to prove my assumptions wrong. It is going to be an interesting story line going into the playoffs, that is of course if the patriots make it.

[Lawdog]

Originally Posted by gribbzz

As much as I respect Bruschi he is not a player on the team right now, a lot of these players are new and he doesn't know them as much as you would think. On top of that he has to say something, it couldn't be "Well things are great on the defensive side of the ball and they will step up because of it". I have listened to it and I have listened to other fans and non fans talk about this on the radio. I guess those that don't share the same point of view I do will just have to wait to prove my assumptions wrong. It is going to be an interesting story line going into the playoffs, that is of course if the patriots make it.

My point is that it is not just Bruschi but a large contingent of the Pats base fans and former players that hate it. I think Bruschi qualifies inherently as a person that can accurately comment on how Belly's decision will affect players, particularly on defense, given his years of understanding how it works as one of if not his primary defensive leader.


The counter to your point is an indictment on the very core of your position as well. The offensive players have to say something too - and given the nature of a locker room I seriously doubt any active offensive player or any active player in uniform will say that they disagreed with Belly's call. If I am right, it is even worse because that means most fans and football minds are deadset against this decision and the only ones speaking in favor of it are those that have to. Talk about a morale nightmare....

It will most certainly be a story line for this year and potentially years to come. Hopefully, for your sake and those of Pats fans, the D steps up and plays at a higher level than they were previously, making Belly's next 4th and 2 from his own 28 that much of an easier call in terms of the sane one.


For what it is worth, I realize and appreciate this is not a clear I am right and you are wrong in the football world. I thought this video makes your point, but I simply disagree with every Martz/Faulk assertion made which I do not do very often.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos...k-bad-decision

[gribbzz]

I still like the call, even after every caller on sports radio on my way home bashed the hell out of him. I cannot simply agree with these guys for the fact that it is the same people that when he went for it on 4th and short on our own 24 a few years back were calling that a genius call.

The guy takes risks and it wasn't the first time it was this huge of a risk. He lives and apparently dies by them and I accept that.

Where I will concede he made a bone head move was the way he called this whole series. You should never have to call a timeout before the first play of a drive, ever. If you are going to go for it on 4th no matter what you call two plays on 3rd down and you don't pass it to the flat like they did...you run it...two QB sneaks would have worked...hell even one may have worked. Tom Brady is 6'5" and can fall forward!

As much as the team has to say what they have to say Harrison and Bruschi need to say what they said as defensive players for Belichick and being on TV.

[Lawdog]

Originally Posted by gribbzz

I still like the call, even after every caller on sports radio on my way home bashed the hell out of him. I cannot simply agree with these guys for the fact that it is the same people that when he went for it on 4th and short on our own 24 a few years back were calling that a genius call. The guy takes risks and it wasn't the first time it was this huge of a risk. He lives and apparently dies by them and I accept that. Where I will concede he made a bone head move was the way he called this whole series. You should never have to call a timeout before the first play of a drive, ever. If you are going to go for it on 4th no matter what you call two plays on 3rd down and you don't pass it to the flat like they did...you run it...two QB sneaks would have worked...hell even one may have worked. Tom Brady is 6'5" and can fall forward! As much as the team has to say what they have to say Harrison and Bruschi need to say what they said as defensive players for Belichick and being on TV.

I think Silver at yahoo.com is spot on. The comparison to other infamous calls is particularly compelling and Belly as a true football historian should be jarred by the eerie and horrific parallels:

Risky call puts Belichick in bad company

By Michael Silver, Yahoo! Sports 9 hours, 57 minutes ago

• Silver at Mogotxt and Twitter.

Belichick's decision helped drop the Pats to 6-3.
(Brian Spurlock/US Presswire)

When Bill Belichick made the decision to go for it on fourth-and-2 from his own 28 with 2:08 remaining and a six-point lead over the Colts on Sunday night, the future Hall of Fame coach knew exactly what he was doing.

It was a perfect setup for ego-driven gratification, guaranteed to paint him as an avant garde genius or a misunderstood martyr: Either the Pats would convert the first down and win the game, and Belichick would be heralded as the shrewdest coach in America, or they’d fall short and lose, and he’d be pummeled by lesser mortals like me who simply don’t understand football on a higher plane.


We all saw what happened, and now it’s time for Belichick to assume the position. Bill, meet Barry Switzer. And see that guy over there in the corner of the room with padded walls? That would be one Sam Wyche.

Many people recall Switzer’s similarly dubious fourth-down gamble as coach of the Cowboys, which led to a late-season defeat to the Eagles in 1995. Less familiar to most fans is Wyche’s incomprehensible decision, as coach of the Bengals, to give Joe Montana and Jerry Rice(notes) a chance to beat him in 1987.

In that game, the Bengals led the 49ers, 26-20, with six seconds remaining at Riverfront Stadium. San Francisco was about to fall to 0-2, pending a Cincinnati punt from its own 31-yard line, where the Bengals faced a fourth-and-long. Wyche didn’t want to risk a punt, instead calling a sweep for James Brooks, with the assumption that the play would eat up the remaining time.

It didn’t: Kevin Fagan nailed Brooks for a six-yard loss with two seconds to go, and I’ll never forget the sight of Montana gleefully sprinting back onto the field like a kid who’d just been told that school was letting out in mid-May. Wyche compounded the problem by leaving rookie cornerback Eric Thomas in single coverage on Rice, who reached up to catch Montana’s “Hail Jerry” pass in the end zone, with the ensuing extra point giving the Niners a stunning victory.

As with Sunday, there was a genius in a headset involved in that episode, but in this case Bill Walsh was the guy literally skipping off the field in delight. And Wyche? He was brutalized publicly as the Bengals wheezed to a 4-11 record in the strike-marred season, called a “social leper” by one Cincinnati newspaper and given the nickname Wicky Wacky.

In defense of Belichick, many people have pointed out that he’s perhaps the greatest coach of his era, with three Super Bowl rings and a history of smart leadership. And all of that’s true – but it doesn’t mean that he has complete license to make ill-fated moves without being people questioning whether he has gone off the deep end.

Greater coaches than Belichick have seemingly lost their minds; hey, it’s a stressful profession that feeds God complexes like few others. And it’s not insignificant that two of his most respected ex-players, Rodney Harrison(notes) and Tedy Bruschi(notes), were highly critical of the decision as television analysts.

Trust me when I say that many people currently in the Patriots’ organization, at various levels, were equally perplexed by Belichick’s behavior.

Put it this way: Would Belichick have dared try that move with people like Bruschi, Harrison, Willie McGinest(notes), Mike Vrabel(notes) and Richard Seymour(notes) on the sidelines? If he had, there might have been a full-blown incident on the sidelines – which is precisely why Belichick loved and coached those proud defenders, and why he’s doing a disservice to the Jerod Mayos and Brandon Meriweathers by not giving them the opportunity to define themselves in gut-wrenching situations like Sunday’s.

Back when he trusted his defense with the game on the line, Belichick successfully preached to his players that it was all about team. Granted, he was the unquestioned authority figure, but no one – not even the coach – was bigger than the team.

By not punting on Sunday, Belichick essentially acted like he was above his players – and the fact that the decision backfired could have lasting consequences. All of those arguments in defense of Belichick which suggest that he was simply playing the odds won’t fly in the locker room, where results are the only thing that matters.

Besides, the “odds” of converting a fourth-and-2 don’t take into account the risk, numerical and emotional, of failing in that situation. Playing Russian roulette is another example of playing the odds, and if you get away with it, bravo. But if you don’t? Well, Belichick had best hope the Patriots perform as well as he expects them to in the coming weeks and months, or he may look back on Sunday as the moment it all started to unravel.

The weird thing is, neither Wyche nor Switzer let their moments of ignominy take them down. Wyche took the Bengals to the Super Bowl the following season, losing only because of Montana’s brilliant 92-yard drive in the final three-plus minutes. Switzer’s Cowboys didn’t lose again after that defeat in Philly, going on to capture their third Super Bowl title in four years.

Those two coaches were deservedly ripped after their decisions led to defeats, and they did something about it. My advice to Belichick is to take his punishment, rejoin the mere mortals in his midst and try to muster a similar response.

[gribbzz]

That is one take on it but its not like he hasn't done this before.

I just hope he learns from the situation and calls the series better.

[Lawdog]

Originally Posted by gribbzz

That is one take on it but its not like he hasn't done this before. I just hope he learns from the situation and calls the series better.

We both most certainly agree with that and if Silver is right, Belly could really use this as a tool if he lets himself. Whether he will makes for fantastic playoff drama and our teams are now competing for wins to wild card it into the playoffs.

[Bob]

That's funny as someone mentioned. Give it to a north and south runner - that certainly doesn't include Mr. Fumble the king of Tip Toe Maroney. What a joke that guy is. Let's see if he runs like a little girl against the Jets. I hope Morris is back this week. I can't take anymore Tip toes.

[Lawdog]

Originally Posted by Bob

That's funny as someone mentioned. Give it to a north and south runner - that certainly doesn't include Mr. Fumble the king of Tip Toe Maroney. What a joke that guy is. Let's see if he runs like a little girl against the Jets. I hope Morris is back this week. I can't take anymore Tip toes.

What is really funny is that Maroney and the other backs at MN were supposed to be all that and a side of fries and both have just sucked much donkeydong. Like Tijuana quality donkeydong. The only one that was pretty good consistently although injury prone - Marion the Barbarian.
Gary Russell? Couldn't even make it with the Steelers when they were still trying to power run a lot.

[ACC Rulez]

Originally Posted by gribbzz

Well Duh, Belichick has won 3 superbowls here...he gets a pass on a lot of calls and player moves. He isn't just living with it, he is defending his decision like he would do it again. ESPN just said that the chance of winning going for it was above 80% and punting it away based on the average punt from Hansen was in the 70's%. If you are playing the odds going for it was a better choice. Ultimately I have no problem with the decision because it was to win the game at that moment and not to "not lose"...you play. to win. the game.

I don't ESPN has stats on teams going for it at their own 28 yard line with 2 minutes to go and you are up by 6 points. I wouldn't put the game on one play....I would kick it and let my defense get a chance to make a play in the next 6 to 8 plays and try to stop them.

So, going for it on 4th down means "you play to win the game"? How about putting your team in the best position is playing to win the game. i agree with on of your statements....by calling the time out...it gave Indy a chance to get their defense set....after watching replays....their D was set perfectly....i am sure if it was a bang bang type of play....I doubt the safety comes up to make that tackle.

[Lawdog]

There is just no getting around this:

Bill Simmons breaks down Belichick's 4th and 2 and makes his week 11 NFL picks - ESPN

[gribbzz]

Originally Posted by Bob

That's funny as someone mentioned. Give it to a north and south runner - that certainly doesn't include Mr. Fumble the king of Tip Toe Maroney. What a joke that guy is. Let's see if he runs like a little girl against the Jets. I hope Morris is back this week. I can't take anymore Tip toes.

Really? Seriously shut the hell up. 480 carries and he fumbled twice! Twice!

I know a lot of people have this anti-maroney he dances around attitude bullshit but this year have you seen him play? This last game wasn't his best but this year he has hit holes and hit people. The reason in the past he was dancing is because of a shoulder injury then coming back from it. Its like how Tom Brady coming back from an injury this year, lets call him mister misses his WRs because he had bad games this year.

[gribbzz]

Originally Posted by Lawdog

There is just no getting around this: Bill Simmons breaks down Belichick's 4th and 2 and makes his week 11 NFL picks - ESPN

Except for the numbers I read were 80-70% but for the sake of the argument lets say it is a push like it seemed like in his piece.

Its not like Bill hasn't gone for it before and on his own side of the field.

You live and die by going for it. I would rather have a guy who have the balls to do it than a coach who wouldn't. I will agree that the series was handled incorrectly and if it were handled correctly they would have converted either the 3rd or 4th down. They should have gone into 3rd down knowing they were going for it and ran the ball, give us a yard or even 2...

[KMoney]

That was such an entertaining game especially the ending. I would love to see these two face off in the AFC championship in a rematch.