Conference realignment Part 2-The conference wars and BCS

[egghead]

I first heard about the interest of conference realignment at the most recent Jan NCAA convention in Orlando---The convention brings together the agents the sponsors the coaches the commissioners and the biggest bull sessions known to college football ---Gossip and Conspiracy theories abound during these Bull sessions--especially after the sessions are over and drinking begins.

The why of realignment was easy to understand---the how we got to the power of the conferences and the wars :shock:

I have heard all kind of rumors an innuendo on the subject---and since this is the rumor mill this is my interpretation of the how we got where we are today :wink:

What drives college football in Modern times

Ego, pride, prestige and the thirst for ultimate power and supremacy drive the game we know today---and are equal partners of blame in destroying the ethical compass of college football that separates it from the rest of intercollegiate athletics.

and what changed the ethical course of college football that saw all the academics capitulate their responsibility towards so called intercollegiate athletics and hand the power to the football conferences.

Money-----TV money

It started in 1951---When two schools Pennsylvania and Notre Dame signed a TV deal with ABC----and scared the bejesus out of the Big 10 and Pac 10 and the NCAA

The NCAA and commish Walter Byers fearing a domination of Southern schools and Notre Dame owning the new airways and reducing attendance regulated Television broadcasts---and put it under NCAA control

Much to the chagrin of the southern football schools

That world changed forever with the Supreme Court ruling in 1986 which basically opened the floodgates for Unlimited football games on TV and created a new power---The CFA

College Football Association --Twenty-five years ago, this movement was created by a group of elite power schools who felt the NCAA was too controlling in harnessing television revenue, athletic scholarships, and the number of coaches who could be hired and employed by a university striving to create a big time college football program. and the SEC was tired of the enforcement tactics by the NCAA on their conference vs the Pac 10 and Big 10

This southern fraternity of schools was created by many key players today who ultimately control the entire landscape of college football through the BCS and changed the way the NCAA controlled college football

The CFA disbanded in 1997 when the NCAA finally agreed Division I-A conferences will have a majority vote on the Division I Executive Committee.

but the real coup for the CFA was the secret alliance that the SEC created in dictating the Bowl Championship Series model now currently running college football and the power it gave the conferences over the NCAA for college football

The conference wars

But it took more than the CFA to take us where we are today

The Big 10 and Pac 10 were the two most powerful conferences in college football. The Big-10 and the NCAA had initial ties in their meager beginnings via Walter Byers, and the PAC-10 had a close tie with the Big-10 due to their alliance with the Rose Bowl, which was the feature bowl game of the era. and the Rose bowl gave the two conferences a significant economic power over the other conferences in the country.

The Rose Bowl tie in would also eventually lead to the loss of power and exposure to the Big Ten and Pac10

The Big-10 and PAC-8 Conferences essentially cut their own throats during this early era by limiting their bowl representatives to two teams and one bowl game, the venerable Rose Bowl. This hindered the schools within these two conferences as many people only identified the PAC-8 with USC and UCLA, while the Big-10 only branded two schools, Michigan and Ohio State

In 1990 the SEC declared war with the Pac 10 and Big 10 when they made Roy Kramer commissioner of the SEC. Roy understood the power of TV and the money and influence the medium could bring conferences and schools. He also had a dream---one that would decrease the power of the NCAA and increase the the power of the major conferences in the country--

But first Kramer had to minimize the power of the Pac 10 and Big 10 over the influence of the NCAA and over the rest of college football. He did that brilliantly with the help of the CFA

Kramer knew the rules and a little known provision in the NCAA by laws allowed a championship game for a 12 member league--Kramer knew the economic advantage that would give him in TV negotiations---He expanded immediately grabbing South Carolina and Arkansas---and signed his first big TV contract going from a deal of 15.3 million to a whopping 40 million dollar deal.

Roy also knew how important branding was----So he went out and sold the league and got valuable Bowl tie ins----The modern day CBS slogan: "The SEC, tradition to you, tradition to me," gained its roots from the limited bowl opportunities extended to the PAC-10 and Big-10 schools. and Roy marginalized the power of the Pac 10 and Big Ten by out branding the conferences but more importantly out earning them

Kramer was becoming the czar of college football--and his dream was starting to unfold

The BCS---

Kramers dream was less about matching up the best teams of a given year in the feature holiday bowl games, and more focused on driving up corporate advertising by matching up the traditional powers of college football and the conferences associated with the teams

That is where the money is-----and Kramer needed allies to further minimize the Rose Bowl and force the Pac 10 and Big 10 to join the coalition

The CFA gave Kramer the platform and the SEC commissioner courted the other conferences with an economic platform that would set up the elite conferences forever

The Big 8 ACC and SEC were part of the original powers forming the CFA- and Kramer went to those conferences with a plan--and an incentive to dramatically change the economics of college football

and that set off the first major realignment--The Big 8 to the Big 12 the ACC grabbing FSU and the formation of the Big East in football with Miami included---

Conference strength was the point of entry into the new era of college football and no one wanted to be left out.

The alliance--

1992-Bowl Coalition

After a lengthy series of meetings in 1991 and early 1992, the commissioners of several conferences and representatives of Notre Dame, along with four bowl committees, created the Bowl Coalition agreement. The Coalition provided a structure which enabled the champions of the Big East Conference and Atlantic Coast Conference and Notre Dame to meet either the champion of the Big Eight (in the Orange Bowl), Southeastern (Sugar Bowl) or Southwest (Cotton Bowl) conferences.

and then Kramer did the unthinkable---he would declare a national champion despite the Big 10 and Pac 10-- In addition, if the champions of the Big East or ACC or Notre Dame had been ranked No. 1 or 2 at the end of the regular season, they would have met in the Fiesta Bowl for the national championship. Their vacated spots in either the Orange, Sugar or Cotton Bowls would have been filled from a pool of at-large teams made up of the number two teams from the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Eight, Pac-10 and Southwest conferences. To guarantee those at-large teams a post-season home, the conferences contracted with the Gator and John Hancock Bowls to provide three additional slots for number two teams.

Kramer had again marginalized the Pac 10 and Big 10 and bought off the ACC and the Big East and Notre Dame by letting them into the money scheme he was planning long term

1995-Bowl Alliance

The Alliance system was designed to allow the champions of the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Eight, Southeastern and Southwest Conferences along with an at-large team to be matched in the three alliance bowls-Fiesta, Sugar and Orange. A second at-large team was added beginning with the 1996 regular season when the Big 12 Conference replaced the old Big Eight and Southwest Conferences.

The Bowl Alliance instituted two major changes which enhanced the opportunity to produce a national championship game. It eliminated conference-champion tie-ins in the three bowls, which gave those bowls the flexibility to choose the best match-ups. And it included two at-large spots which were open to all Division I-A teams that won at least eight regular season games or were ranked in the top 12 or no lower than the lowest-ranked conference champion participating in the Alliance.

1997

The Pac 10 and Big 10 saw the writing on the wall and the BCS was officially formed---The first commissioner of the BCS--Roy Kramer of course

But Roy was no friend of a national playoff model---that would mean the SEC would have to share the money with the have nots---and he wouldn't let that happen

and he put in provisions to make sure conference had to live up to certain standards to join in the economic windfall

So the initial war was over----all was right with the world as the 6 major conferences had all the power they needed to maintain domination of the college football world and all the money that generated----

So what do we know

The big 6 conferences now control the NCAA and control the BCS---creating an enormous windfall to the 6 conferences

---we know 12 team conferences and similar teams in drawing power maximize profits according to the economic gurus

and to stay a member of the elite you have to generate a significant amount of revenue allowing significant spending to stay part of the elite

But today the conferences aren't made up with similar teams in drawing power or revenue --- and more importantly is causing a competitive imbalance that reduces revenue potential for the conference

these imbalances will lead to another round of realignment---

But more importantly it will lead to the super conferences that will eventually rule college football and eventually to a real National championship playoff system.

we now know that the Big East is looking to expand the Big Ten is looking to expand---

So that is my conspiracy story---and I'm sticking to it for now :wink:

Next the rumors---Colorado to the Pac 10?---Arkansas to the Big 12?---Rutgers to the Big 10?---

Part 3----Conference Realignment The future and the rumors

What do you think?

[m2k989]

I could see the Pac-10 adding UNLV and Nevada to get up to 12. Two decent programs, and you don't lose the geographic homogenity of the conference. It's that or Colorado and CSU, right? Nevada makes more sense geographically anyway. So you get:

Pac 10 North:
Washington
Wazzou
Oregon
Oregon State
Cal
Stanford

Pac 10 South:
USC
UCLA
Arizona
Arizona State
Nevada
UNLV

[egghead]

Originally Posted by m2k989

I could see the Pac-10 adding UNLV and Nevada to get up to 12. Two decent programs, and you don't lose the geographic homogenity of the conference. It's that or Colorado and CSU, right? Nevada makes more sense geographically anyway. So you get: Pac 10 North: Washington Wazzou Oregon Oregon State Cal Stanford Pac 10 South: USC UCLA Arizona Arizona State Nevada UNLV

The problem is the drawing power----Nevada and UNLV would be some economically challenged schools ---attendance and TV exposure would give nothing back to the conference-----Each new school would have to generate about $6 mill in incremental revenue with another $12 to 15 coming from the championship game for the expanded conference to make economic sense-----Stanford Cal and WSU already drain the conference--Stanford can pay its own way---Cal and WSU struggle

[drarcher]

Originally Posted by m2k989

I could see the Pac-10 adding UNLV and Nevada to get up to 12. Two decent programs, and you don't lose the geographic homogenity of the conference. It's that or Colorado and CSU, right? Nevada makes more sense geographically anyway. So you get: Pac 10 North: Washington Wazzou Oregon Oregon State Cal Stanford Pac 10 South: USC UCLA Arizona Arizona State Nevada UNLV

Some other possibilities:
BYU
Utah
San Diego St.
Fresno State
Hawaii
New Mexico
New Mexico St.
Boise St

If it were up to me I would like to see:

Pac 10 Coastal:
USC
UCLA
Oregon
Oregon State
Cal
Stanford

Pac 10 Pacific:
Washington
Wazzou
Arizona
Arizona State
Hawaii
Boise St.

Hawaii and Boise State would add two teams that can compete at the higher level and give more on field power to the Pac-10.

[egghead]

Originally Posted by drarcher

Originally Posted by m2k989 I could see the Pac-10 adding UNLV and Nevada to get up to 12. Two decent programs, and you don't lose the geographic homogenity of the conference. It's that or Colorado and CSU, right? Nevada makes more sense geographically anyway. So you get: Pac 10 North: Washington Wazzou Oregon Oregon State Cal Stanford Pac 10 South: USC UCLA Arizona Arizona State Nevada UNLV Some other possibilities: BYU Utah San Diego St. Fresno State Hawaii New Mexico New Mexico St. Boise St If it were up to me I would like to see: Pac 10 Coastal: USC UCLA Oregon Oregon State Cal Stanford Pac 10 Pacific: Washington Wazzou Arizona Arizona State Hawaii Boise St. Hawaii and Boise State would add two teams that can compete at the higher level and give more on field power to the Pac-10.

That would give the Pac 10 a couple of upsides---Recruiting power with Hawaii--(What kid wouldn't be intrigued by trip to the Aloha State every other year--and Two new television markets---all be it very small

But economically Hawaii would be only slightly above WSU in attendance and Boise State would be the smallest conference school with 30,000 average attendance---and a football budget 1/8th the size of USC with 1/15th the revenue---

When thinking about realignment---Think big ---like geographies and like economics

Did you know that Texas was very close to joining the Pac 10 when the old SWC collapsed---The new Big 12 offered them a better package---No TV revenue sharing-which is causing the issue in the Big 12 today

and guess who is the richest school in college football after the 2006 season----Not Notre Dame---Texas---Texas was the nation's richest and most profitable football program, with revenue of $53.2 million, and a profit of $38.7 million.[ND surpassed Texas by a million dollars in 07 with the BCS appearance)

there are 15 schools that went to a bowl this year that reported losses on their football program last season. only three of those schools came from the BCS :wink:

and at the end of the day TV ratings---and competion that drives the ratings will drive the next round of expansion----So Boise State while very sexy today will have a hard time driving ratings long term an Hawaii---well its time zone prevents great ratings---to late on the East Coast

But those additions would make for some exciting games in the next couple years------

[YankeesSuck888]

Egg, what schools are the most realistic to join the Pac-10? I know you said something about Colorado, but for some reason it just doesn't fit in my opinion. I really like Archers idea with Hawaii and Boise (especially Hawaii, June Jones finally will get recognized). They both fit in geographically as well. UNLV? Maybe even a school in the midwest (Kansas State by any chance)?

[DCDawg]

Egg, all of the factors you consider (and the hint you dropped earlier) lead me to think that Rutgers is the logical choice to go to the B10. They are prime to tap into a huge market that the B10 doesn't have a foothold in yet. Really, Rutgers is potentially a gold-mine.

Question is, how do the domino's fall? Also, if Arkansas leaves the SEC, who comes in? Is it even a spot that big time programs would want, considering the level of play?

[egghead]

Originally Posted by YankeesSuck888

Egg, what schools are the most realistic to join the Pac-10. I know you said something about Colorado, but for some reason it just doesn't fit in my opinion. I really like Archers idea with Hawaii and Boise (especially Hawaii, June Jones finally will get recognized). They both fit in geographically as well. UNLV? Maybe even a school in the midwest (Kansas State by any chance)?

I promise you---I know nothing from any insider as to who the Pac 10 will pick as the next member--but I can make some educated guesses from the rumors I have heard on the criteria the Pac 10 is using

I think at this time anything is possible for the Pac 10---but the window is short so they are thinking and exploring big before expanding---and in the end they may be forced to settle for small---and Boise State Hawaii Nevada and UNLV Fresno State BYU Etc are small---Big East small---That means the teams that the Big East added after the raid were smaller economically and caused lower revenues for the conference---smaller schools that are losing money playing football (Attendance and Revenue dollars)

Colorado has been in discussions with the Pac 10---quietly---(Even though it was reported in a couple of blurbs early this year forcing the Pac 10 to announce no plan for expansion this year or near term---(Love the words this year and near term) :wink:

and Colorado has the economics and TV market thats fits well with the Pac 10--This is the "Big" the Pac 10 is looking at but who would be the other big school?---

No secret Colorado was more than a little peeved over the lack of support and penalties by the Big 12 during the trying scandal years and they hate the lack of TV revenue sharing

and Colorado is smart---They see the problems in the conference---the lower tier can't compete----leading to troubling times for the confernce

But the real shocker may be Arkansas and maybe even Nebraska or potentially Texas---But not to the Pac 10---and imagine the collapse of maybe 1 confernce or 2 conferences---What would happen to the 8-12 strong football schools with no conference affiliation for football

and that is Part 3 to the story

a preview of part three

the next conference realignment will be small----a team will join the Big Ten which will lead to a change in the Big East or Big 12---which will lead to a change in the Pac 10--which will lead to a change in the Big 12 and SEC and ACC and the Big East---

and the race will be on for the real goal----The one that the BCS is now leading us towards--- :wink:

[trainwreck]

I could see Colorado in football and Gonzaga in basketball joining the Pac-10.

[egghead]

Originally Posted by DCDawg

Egg, all of the factors you consider (and the hint you dropped earlier) lead me to think that Rutgers is the logical choice to go to the B10. They are prime to tap into a huge market that the B10 doesn't have a foothold in yet. Really, Rutgers is potentially a gold-mine. Question is, how do the domino's fall? Also, if Arkansas leaves the SEC, who comes in? Is it even a spot that big time programs would want, considering the level of play?

Dawg thats the millon dollar queston for the first round of expansion---Conferences getting to 12 teams===The first round is about the dominoes that will start to fall as the Big 10 and Pac 10 get to 12 teams but that will lead to the bigger expansion in the future---

But in my opinion

The Big East expansion is for survival---and is already to late to save the football part of the confernce long term---The teams they added were a drain to the finances in the last expansion--The Big 10 starts the big dominoes--followed quickly by the Pac 10---which will start the biggest shakeup---and yes Arkansas wants to go back to its old recruiting ground and rivalries and has talked about leaving the SEC

no secret that the SEC has courted FSU for years---Twice in the last 15 years---Not that Florida would be happy---but FSU Clemson and even Georgia Tech to a lesser extent would be naturals for the SEC---But you have a point about the competition---until you consider what makes the SEC so strong---It is about the competition with no dominating team year in and year out---it drives the ratings which drives the TV money that gives the SEC the power it has today---No other conference comes close competitively year after year.

as for the dominoes----

Rutgers Syracuse in the Big East---Colorado Missouri and potentially bigger fish in the Big 12---Arkansas Vandy in the SEC--FSU Clemson in the ACC=are all dominoes to watch

Even Northwestern in the Big 10 and Cal and WSU in the Pac 10 Kansas Iowa Sate and KSU in the Big 12 and the whole Big East are not safe once all the dominoes start to fall----

But one things for sure the next round is just the preliminary round---until the ecomomics start killing the weak and the big changes come :wink:

when all the dominoes start to fall :shock:

but the most exciting thing about expansion----is the passionate discussion it brings to college football---and all the differing opinions----I love it

[JustinA407]

Man this stuff scares the crap out of me. It would be nice if the Big East's balls would drop and they would try to make a bold move. Of course maybe they have tried and it just doesn't work. I mean go after PSU, BC, MD, and VT. Seems like a pipe dream and I know it won't happen, but anything is better than sitting and waiting for the conference to die.

I'm curious as to your opinion as to where WVU falls when the dust settles. If we could just be in a big market we would be set because I think we have everything else.

[jriddle3]

Originally Posted by DCDawg

Egg, all of the factors you consider (and the hint you dropped earlier) lead me to think that Rutgers is the logical choice to go to the B10. They are prime to tap into a huge market that the B10 doesn't have a foothold in yet. Really, Rutgers is potentially a gold-mine. Question is, how do the domino's fall? Also, if Arkansas leaves the SEC, who comes in? Is it even a spot that big time programs would want, considering the level of play?

Dawg - You know something?
I hear rumblings that the Hogs were a better fit "logistically" with the Big 12 (South division) but that was only rumor & speculation (that I know of).
Personally, I prefer the SEC. We just need a coach who can get us to a BCS game, win more than 1/2 of his SEC games, and get his soap opera of a life under control.

[jumanji]

Originally Posted by jriddle3

Originally Posted by DCDawg Egg, all of the factors you consider (and the hint you dropped earlier) lead me to think that Rutgers is the logical choice to go to the B10. They are prime to tap into a huge market that the B10 doesn't have a foothold in yet. Really, Rutgers is potentially a gold-mine. Question is, how do the domino's fall? Also, if Arkansas leaves the SEC, who comes in? Is it even a spot that big time programs would want, considering the level of play? Dawg - You know something? I hear rumblings that the Hogs were a better fit "logistically" with the Big 12 (South division) but that was only rumor & speculation (that I know of). Personally, I prefer the SEC. We just need a coach who can get us to a BCS game, win more than 1/2 of his SEC games, and get his soap opera of a life under control.

I would think (or at least hope) that if Arkansas would somehow join the Big XII, the Big XII would be smart enough to put them in the North. I would hope they learned that when you put all of the teams that are close to the best recruiting in one division, that division will become the dominant one. It's no coincidence that the teams around and in Texas have dominated the league for the past few years, with no signs of their domination coming to end in the near future. Even if Nebraska starts winning a conference championship every few years, the South will always be the better, deeper division. They really need to put Arkansas in the North to even it out a little. Really, other than Nebraska, I really don't see any team in the North that scares me at all. And Nebraska still isn't all that great yet.

Just my opinion. Wouldn't hurt my feelings if the left Nebraska alone as the only descent team in the North. More conference championship games for us, I guess. But I think it would be much better for the conference if they got another descent team.

[DCDawg]

Originally Posted by jriddle3

Dawg - You know something? I hear rumblings that the Hogs were a better fit "logistically" with the Big 12 (South division) but that was only rumor & speculation (that I know of).

I know nothing. I am only a messenger. (somehow, jrid, I think you'll get this obscure and pointless movie line.)

I really don't know anything that I haven't read here.

[JustinA407]

Originally Posted by Mountaineer4life

Originally Posted by JustinA407 Man this stuff scares the crap out of me. It would be nice if the Big East's balls would drop and they would try to make a bold move. Of course maybe they have tried and it just doesn't work. I mean go after PSU, BC, MD, and VT. Seems like a pipe dream and I know it won't happen, but anything is better than sitting and waiting for the conference to die. I'm curious as to your opinion as to where WVU falls when the dust settles. If we could just be in a big market we would be set because I think we have everything else. We'll be right here in the Big East still, i don't see us losing Rutgers, Syracuse is much more of a possibility and as is Louisville to the SEC. Big East wise, i dont know what we would do, I'd like to say we could get UVA, Maryland, Penn State, Notre Dame team to join up, but i highly doubt any of that would ever happen, the big east would most likely get a southern miss, ucf, ecu, or one of the MAC teams.

Don't be so sure my friend. Also I don't see UL in the SEC, I don't think UK would be ok with that and it doesn't do a whole lot for them. I could see them going for one of the Florida schools or maybe GT. Then the ACC would take someone from the Big East. Makes the most sense anyway.